George Allen’s latest ‘gaffe’ (and what it says about his 2012 campaign)

Former senator George Allen (R-Va.) has stoked some racial controversy yet again. (AP Photo/Bristol Herald Courier, David Crigger) (David Crigger - AP) On the surface, it looks like former senator George Allen (R-Va.) stepped in it again.

A local TV news reporter named Craig Melvin, who happens to be a tall, African-American man, tweeted Tuesday night that Allen greeted him by asking him: “What position did you play?” For the second time in five months.

Allen insisted in a tweet that no offense was meant; “Sorry if I offended, ask people a lot if they played sports. Grew up in football family found sports banter good way to connect,” Allen wrote in response to Melvin.

And, another local TV reporter tweeted Thursday, after the Melvin episode began making the rounds, that Allen uses the ice-breaker with him – a white man – too.

“Clearly, George Allen was not looking to offend anyone, and he responded directly to the original tweet to make sure that (Melvin) understood his thinking and understood what he was discussing,” said Dan Allen, a spokesman for the former senator.

Whether or not you believe that the situation was one big misunderstanding, it served to highlight a central question Allen must answer in his 2012 bid: Can he adapt his hail-fellow-well-met campaigning style to a minute-by-minute political world dominated by Twitter and Facebook?

It’s a question every campaign will have to face, but it is particularly relevant for Allen, given that another emerging technology — YouTube — led to his surprise defeat five years ago.

Allen’s now-famous reference to a Democratic campaign worker as “macaca” ushered in the You Tube era of politics where every moment on the trail was not only captured but available for instant — and easy — uplopading to the Internet within minutes. (The original “macaca” video has now been viewed nearly 600,000 times on YouTube.)

If YouTube was the hot new technology of campaign 2006, then Twitter is the new “it” technology of 2012. The simple fact is that, at even this early stage of the race, Allen has an army of people around him able to report anything he says (in 140 characters or less) at a moment’s notice. And the entry of former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine into the race Tuesday means Allen will have no cakewalk.

Allen’s exchange with Melvin quite simply would never have been reported a decade ago or even his 2006 campaign. But Republicans close to Allen’s campaign say, even if he’s got a good excuse for this – admittedly much smaller – gaffe, he needs to realize that everything he says will be under a microscope for the next 19 months.

In the runup to his announcement for Senate, those close to Allen made the case that he had learned his lesson from the fallout from “macaca” — that although he meant no offense by it, the way in which it was reported made him out to be a bully and that he needed to be far more careful in the future.

While the Allen forces deny that the Melvin incident is anything more than a misunderstanding, it also clearly plays into an existing narrative about the former senator that is potentially very problematic for him as he ramps up for a bid to reclaim his old seat.

All that said, a single tweet will not be the undoing of Allen’s 2012 campaign. And, in fact, it may be evidence of Allen’s operation turning a corner.

In 2006, the Allen campaign made its problem infinitely worse by trying to kill the story and jousting with reporters over their coverage of the gaffe. What started as a small story suddenly became something much bigger over the course of a few days.

This time, the campaign is taking a different tack — most notably Allen’s personal apology to Melvin via Twitter, which came well before the story even became big news.

In a perfect world, the Allen team would have liked for this to have never been an issue in the first place. But much of Allen’s problem in 2006 was not the initial comment but his reaction to the controversy it caused.

His reaction this time, at least for now, looks like it should put an end to this episode. But the controversy should alert him — again — to the political dangers of the Twitter era. If he fails to heed this latest warning, his path to the Senate could be far rockier than he originally imagined.

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Blue Dogs shutter their campaign committees

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) was seen as a rising Democratic star, the party's own "mama grizzly." (Eric Landwehr - AP) Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel said last month that he had contacted former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.) about running for her old seat in 2012.

And for good reason: Herseth Sandlin, much like many Democrats in tough districts, was popular in her home area before falling victim to a tough 2010 election year. Israel, recognizing the rough terrain for Democrats in South Dakota, would obviously love having someone like Herseth Sandlin trying to reclaim her seat in 2012.

Unfortunately for Israel, she may have other plans. After joining a Washington law firm earlier this month, Herseth Sandlin on Thursday dissolved her campaign committee – a move that generally means a candidate has no plans to make a quick return to politics.

In fact, Herseth Sandlin is just the latest 2010 loser to close down his or her committee; she joins a host of former Democratic members from conservative-leaning districts who have done the same.

Former Blue Dog Reps. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.), Bobby Bright (D-Ala.), Baron Hill (D-Ind.), Walt Minnick (D-Idaho) and Travis Childers (D-Miss.) have also shuttered their campaign committees in the aftermath of the 2010 election.

Those five candidates, along with Herseth Sandlin, represent six of the most conservative districts that Democrats lost in 2010. And that’s not good news for their party, which may find it hard to replace those candidates’ prowess on the ballot.

While closing one’s campaign committee does not disqualify a candidate from opening up a new committee and running at some point down the line, it would be an unusual move for a candidate who is considering a run in the near future. In fact, members who lost years ago – even decades ago – will often keep their campaign committees open in perpetuity.

“The far more common practice is for an individual to keep a committee if they have any inclination whatsoever of running again,” said Paul Ryan, a campaign finance expert at the Campaign Legal Center. “Even some individuals who don’t plan to run again in the future and who might plan to (lobby on) K Street – they’ll keep their committee open.”

Ryan noted that maintaining a campaign committee is not an onerous process.

“The cost is quite low, and the reporting requirements are pretty modest when there’s not much money,” Ryan said. “There’s very little disincentive to keeping the committee open.”

Herseth Sandlin said in December that the odds of her seeking her old seat in 2012 were less than 50-50. She did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Other former Democratic incumbents who have closed down their committees include former Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.), who lost his seat by six points in 2010, and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), whose seat went to Republicans in November while Sestak lost Pennsylvania’s open Senate race.

Three-time former congressional candidate Dan Seals (D) has also closed his campaign committee after losing an open seat to Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.), as has former Nebraska state Sen. Tom White (D), a top recruit against Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.) who ran in the wrong year.

On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) has closed his committee after losing a primary in 2010. And former Oregon state Rep. Scott Bruun closed his committee after a loss to Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) – one of the more disappointing losses for the GOP in 2010.

Former Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), who left his seat to run for governor last year, is now considering a run against Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.). But he closed his House campaign committee – which he could easily have turned into a Senate campaign committee – in late January.

Again, closing a campaign committee doesn’t foreclose a future run. But it does offer hints about where a candidate’s head is at regarding the next campaign.

As Democrats recruit a number of candidates who lost in 2010, don’t expect many of these names to pop up.

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Local bloggers on the 2012 campaign beat

A new survey from Municipoll shows Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter in good shape heading into the May Democratic primary.

Nutter leads a generic opponent by a 47%-39% margin. In a variety of hypothetical matchups, Nutter leads the second-highest vote-getter by at least 15%.

“Michael Nutter appears increasingly well-positioned to win a Democratic Primary Election, especially a multi-candidate race,” said poll director Ed Haggerty.

Municipoll surveyed 871 likely Democratic primary voters from January 12 to 16. The data were weighted slightly by gender and age. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 3%.

“It suggests that Nutter would be tough to beat. But it also tells you that he’s not over 50%. I wouldn’t think that’s a great place for an incumbent to be. H’s been there, his name has been out there for four years,” said Sam Katz, who had been rumored as a potential challenger to Nutter before ruling it out in November.

Katz reiterated that he is not running for mayor, but said that this poll shouldn’t discourage others from taking a look.

“I don’t put much stock in a poll that’s taken in the absence of a campaign. Because as far as the public is concerned, there isn’t a campaign. There isnt a challenge, there isn’t a conversation about the direction of the city. There isn’t a comparison being made by other candidates.”

“If there is a campaign, if there is a conversation, I think it will produce a very close election,” Katz predicted.

There is another interesting caveat in the poll results. Nutter enjoys higher support from white Philadelphians than from African Americans (continuing a trend that is analyzed in a really excellent piece by Patrick Kerkstra in Philadelphia Magazine). 64% of whites have a favorable opinion of Nutter, compared to 52% of African Americans. Twice as many African Americans (16%) are not sure of their opinion of the Mayor as whites.

“Nutter’s strong support among white voters seems to turn Philadelphia’s usual racial politics on its head.  However, his lukewarm support among African-American voters raises questions as to why, after three years in office, Nutter still hasn’t consolidated support in this critical base constituency,” said Haggerty.

Hypothetical matchups

Nutter vs. generic Democratic primary opponent
Nutter: 47%
New Person: 39%
Undecided: 15%

3-way race featuring Anthony Williams, Bill Green and Nutter:
Nutter: 46%
Green: 21%
Williams: 18%
Undecided: 14%

3-way race featuring Anthony Williams, Sam Katz and Nutter:
Williams: 21%
Katz: 22%
Nutter: 44%
Undecided: 13%

In a free-for-all primary:
Nutter: 32%
Fattah: 17%
Brady: 11%
Evans: 10%
Katz: 8%
Undecided: 7%
Green: 6%
Williams: 5%
Knox 4%

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Pick Obama’s new campaign slogan

President Obama has launched his 2012 campaign and with it a new slogan: “It begins with us.” (Supporters of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are already claiming the president stole the phrase.)

It probably won’t become identified with the Obama brand the way “Change you can believe in” or “Yes, we can” was but it’s still young in slogan years.

Think you can do better? Post your slogan on Twitter with the hashtag #obamaslogan and we’ll highlight the best ideas.

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Tim Pawlenty lands a presidential campaign manager

Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty has signed GOP operative Nick Ayers to serve as his campaign manager, scoring one of the best-regarded young strategists in the party to lead his 2012 presidential effort.

“I’ve chosen to work for the man whose record, principles and vision will give us the strongest Republican nominee, who has the greatest chance of victory in November 2012,” Ayers said in an email to The Fix. “[Pawlenty] is someone who knows what he believes and doesn’t need polls to know how to say it, and he has lived honorably in both his public and private life.”

Ayers, who served as executive director of the Republican Governors Association during the 2008 and 2010 election cycles, was courted by at least four other potential presidential candidates. He is currently helping to lead the transition effort at the Republican National Committee under chairman Reince Priebus.

Pawlenty, who worked with Ayers as vice chair of the RGA during the 2010 cycle, called him “one of the best political talents in America,” adding: “His leadership and record of winning tough races in every part of our country will provide even more momentum to our campaign to get America back on track.”  

Ayers, who at 28 is among the youngest campaign managers in modern presidential history, will move to Minneapolis and begin in his new role on April 25.

Ayers’ hiring indicates that there is now no doubt that Pawlenty will be in the race for the Republican nomination next year. He formed an exploratory committee to begin raising money for a candidacy late last month.

Pawlenty and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour have been by far the most active in the race for staff talent. (It’s worth noting that Ayers worked under Barbour, who chaired the RGA, during the 2010 election.)

Pawlenty is moving aggressivelyon the staffing front in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Ayers rounds out a team of national strategists that includes former White House political director Sara Taylor, former John McCain presidential campaign manager Terry Nelson, former Minnesota congressman Vin Weber, former RGA executive director Phil Musser and former Republican National Committee spokesman Alex Conant. (For a full look at Pawlenty’s inner circle — done before Ayers’ hire — click here.)

Ayers was one of The Fix’s top six free-agent operatives heading into the 2012 contest.

Palin praises Trump’s birtherism: Donald Trump is getting a lot of press for his effort to get to the bottom of President Obama’s birth certificate, and now it seems former Alaska governor Sarah Palin is ready to aid his effort.

Palin, appearing on Fox News this weekend, said that she “appreciates” what Trump is doing, and that “there is something there that the president doesn’t want people to see on that birth certificate.”

Palin’s remarks are interesting, because in the past she has suggested the the birther issue is a distraction from the real issues. Now, for some reason, she appears to think Trump’s quest is worthwhile.

Case jumps into Hawaii Senate race: Former Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii) will make another run for Senate in 2012 after jumping into the race for retiring Sen. Daniel Akaka’s (D) seat Sunday.

Case becomes the first major candidate in the race, but he’s unlikely to have a clear primary path. Other potential Democratic candidates include former Hono­lulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and Reps. Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa.

Case lost a 2006 primary challenge to Akaka, and he also lost a special election for a House seat last year.

Potential GOP candidates include former Gov. Linda Lingle and former Rep. Charles Djou, who held his seat for less than a year before losing to Hanabusa in November.

Louisiana redistricting may have to wait: Five of seven congressmen from Louisiana have signed a letter asking the state legislature to delay debate on a redistricting plan, after last week’s efforts yielded plenty of drama but little progress.

The members proposed waiting at least a year to draw new congressional districts, which would still allow them to be drawn before the 2012 election.

It’s worth noting that such a delay would also mean the legislature could look substantially different, because the state holds state House and Senate races in 2011. Republicans currently have a small majority in the state Senate, thanks to recent party switches, but the state Senate president is still a Democrat.

All five of the letter’s signatories were Republicans. Reps. Cedric Richmond (D) and Charles Boustany (R) were the only members not to sign the letter. Boustany’s efforts last week to get his district to his liking rubbed other members of the delegation the wrong way.

Details on Barbour’s N.H. trip: Barbour will visit with the Greater Manchester Federation of Republican Women during his trip to New Hampshire on Friday, according to an advance look at his schedule.

Barbour’s trip is newsworthy because many think, as a southern governor, he might have difficulty catching on in the Granite State.

He will also visit a gun shop Friday morning and do a reception at a private residence on Thursday evening.

Lazio for Senate?: An eagled-eyed Tweep notes that the Google description for former Rep. Rick Lazio’s website calls him “Republican candidate for the US Senate from New York.”

Lazio, who lost to Hillary Clinton in her first Senate campaign in 2000 and lost a primary for governor last year, would be running against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who is not considered a top GOP target.

Gillibrand raised a very strong $3 million in the first quarter of this year.

Messages left with Lazio’s office weren’t returned Sunday evening.

Politics and Pints is tonight!: Make sure to stop by the Capitol Lounge at 7 p.m. for the latest installment in The Fix’s monthly trivia night, Politics and Pints.

Form your own team or show up and join someone else’s.

Fixbits:

White House senior adviser David Plouffe says Trump has no chance of becoming president.

Olympic Gold Medalist Carl Lewis is set to make an announcement about his “political plans” this afternoon in New Jersey. He is expected to run as a Democrat for the state Senate.

Massachusetts is celebrating the fifth anniversary of former governor Mitt Romney’s (R) health care law.

Must-reads:

“An imbalanced budget deal?” — Nate Silver, New York Times

“As Obama’s 2012 campaign takes shape, Chicago reclaiming role as reelection nerve center” — AP

“Obama to lay out plan this week to cut deficit” — Zachary A. Goldfarb, Philip Rucker and Paul Kane, Washington Post

“Drafting a presidential candidate is tougher than it sounds” — Nia-Malika Henderson, Washington Post

“Momentum fails O’Malley as some key goals falter” — John Wagner and Aaron C. Davis, Washington Post

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